How we compute form (momentum)

A player's current form is a composite index that weighs the last 5 matches with more weight on the most recent ones, and applies different weights depending on role (goalkeeper, defender, midfielder, forward).

Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA)

Match-by-match ratings (official rating + our adjustments) feed into an EWMA with alpha = 0.3: the latest match weighs more than the previous one, which weighs more than the one before, and so on. This captures the recent trend without ignoring background.

Secondary indicators

Beyond the EWMA average rating we measure: goal streak, assist streak, clean sheet streak (for goalkeepers and defenders), starter rate (matches started over total), discipline risk (yellow/red cards), tackles, accurate passes, shots on target.

Role weights

Each indicator carries a different weight per role. For example, for a forward the goal streak weighs 30%; for a defender clean sheets and tackles together weigh 40%; for a goalkeeper clean sheets weigh 30%. The full weight matrix is visible in the open-source calculator.

Output

What we publish is the trend (rising / stable / declining), computed by comparing the last-5 window against the previous-5 window, together with the raw indicators above, each in its own unit.

Internally the indicators are combined into a composite index we use to rank players, and which we do not publish as a number. The reason: it is not a mark out of a hundred and would be read as one. A midfielder with no open goal-or-assist streak loses 35 of those 100 points by construction, a forward 45, and streaks sit at zero almost always. A healthy player lands between 30 and 50, and no "/100" wording survives that. Matches not played enter no average.

Limits

A player with fewer than 5 recent matches gets a score based on what's available, but with lower statistical stability. Momentum does NOT account for opponent strength: a goal streak against bottom-table sides counts the same as one against top sides.

Methodology version: v1, last updated April 2026.