How we compute form (momentum)

A player's current form is a composite index that weighs the last 5 matches with more weight on the most recent ones, and applies different weights depending on role (goalkeeper, defender, midfielder, forward).

Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA)

Match-by-match ratings (official rating + our adjustments) feed into an EWMA with alpha = 0.3: the latest match weighs more than the previous one, which weighs more than the one before, and so on. This captures the recent trend without ignoring background.

Secondary indicators

Beyond the EWMA average rating we measure: goal streak, assist streak, clean sheet streak (for goalkeepers and defenders), starter rate (matches started over total), discipline risk (yellow/red cards), tackles, accurate passes, shots on target.

Role weights

Each indicator carries a different weight per role. For example, for a forward the goal streak weighs 30%; for a defender clean sheets and tackles together weigh 40%; for a goalkeeper clean sheets weigh 30%. The full weight matrix is visible in the open-source calculator.

Output

The result is a 0 to 100 composite score with a trend (rising / stable / declining) computed by comparing the last-5 window against the previous-5 window.

Limits

A player with fewer than 5 recent matches gets a score based on what's available, but with lower statistical stability. Momentum does NOT account for opponent strength: a goal streak against bottom-table sides counts the same as one against top sides.

Methodology version: v1, last updated April 2026.