Como arrive at the Bluenergy Stadium on Saturday afternoon as the more convincing side in recent weeks, and Udinese's Kosta Runjaić knows it. The home side open their Serie A campaign having collected three points from their last three matches, while Cesc Fàbregas's Como come in off thirteen points from their last five — a record that includes four wins and a draw, with twelve goals scored. The gap in momentum is real, and the opening weekend is precisely when such gaps can be exploited before opponents have time to adjust.
For Udinese, the stakes are straightforward: a home defeat on matchday one sets a tone that is difficult to shake. Runjaić's side finished their previous Serie A run in declining form — one win, no draws, and two defeats across their last three league outings, conceding twice and scoring once. A Coppa Italia win over Padova on 15 August offered some encouragement, but Padova is not Como. For Fàbregas's side, a positive result here would confirm that their preseason form — built across competitive fixtures against Villarreal, Famalicão, and Al Ula — has translated into something durable. Fourth in the early standings means nothing after zero matches played, but arriving with thirteen points' worth of momentum from five games is a different kind of currency.
Udinese's last-five record reads three wins, no draws, two defeats, with five goals scored and two conceded. The last-three window, however, tells a deteriorating story: one win, two losses, one goal scored against two conceded. That is a declining arc by any measure, and it is the more relevant window given the time elapsed since May. Como's trajectory runs in the opposite direction. Four wins and a draw across five matches, with twelve goals scored, and the last three producing seven goals for and four against — a slight defensive softening, but the attacking output remains high. Como are improving in attack, plateauing defensively.
The head-to-head record between these two sides is thin but instructive: across two meetings, Como hold one win and one draw, with Udinese yet to beat them. Small samples carry limited weight, but the pattern at least suggests Como have not historically found this fixture difficult.
Tactically, the central duel will likely define the match. Fàbregas has built Como around positional fluidity and high-tempo transitions — the twelve goals in five preseason and late-season matches suggest a side that creates volume rather than relying on individual moments. Runjaić's Udinese, by contrast, have been more conservative in attack, scoring five across their last five. If Como's midfield can control the tempo in the Friulian heat, Udinese's defensive structure — which held firm in three of their last five — will be tested by the width and movement Fàbregas tends to deploy. The second duel is between Udinese's defensive compactness at home and Como's willingness to press high; the Friulani conceded only two goals across their last five, but their attacking output suggests they may struggle to punish Como on the counter if the visitors dominate possession.
Udinese's weakness is evident in the last-three window: they have scored once in three matches, and a side that cannot convert pressure into goals will struggle against a Como defence that, while not impenetrable, has been tested across a varied preseason schedule. Como's vulnerability is at the back — seven goals conceded across five matches is not a crisis, but it is an invitation for a team willing to press early.
Como's form arc is the stronger of the two, their attacking numbers are superior, and the head-to-head record offers no comfort to the hosts. A 1-2 Como win — Udinese finding the net once through a set piece or transition, but ultimately unable to contain Fàbregas's attacking patterns — is the most likely outcome.