Sassuolo host Lecce at the Mapei Stadium on Sunday evening in a fixture where neither side can afford to treat the final weeks of the season as a formality. Fabio Grosso's Sassuolo, playing at home, have shown enough in recent weeks to suggest they are a side capable of beating anyone on their day — the 2-0 win against AC Milan on 3 May stands as evidence — yet they have not been able to string results together with any consistency. Eusebio Di Francesco's Lecce arrive having navigated a difficult run with a degree of defensive solidity, but their attacking output has been modest, and a home defeat to Juventus last weekend will have sharpened the focus heading into this trip north.
Both teams carry identical three-match form — four points each from the last three, with one win, one draw and one defeat — which makes the contest genuinely open. The difference in their five-match windows is marginal: Sassuolo have collected seven points to Lecce's five, scoring six and conceding five against Lecce's three goals scored and five conceded. That goal-difference gap across the last five fixtures is the clearest indicator of where each side's vulnerabilities lie. Lecce have been tight at the back in their most recent three games, conceding just twice, but they have scored only twice in that same period. Grosso's side have been more productive going forward over the longer window, though their away form — losses at Torino and Genoa bookending the five-match run — reveals a side that performs better with home support behind them.
The one previous meeting between these clubs in the available data ended in a draw, which offers little predictive weight but does suggest Lecce are capable of making life difficult for Sassuolo even when the Neroverdi are the stronger side on paper.
The tactical contest will hinge on how Lecce manage the transition phases. Di Francesco's side have shown a willingness to absorb pressure and hit on the counter — the away win at Pisa on 1 May fits that profile — and Sassuolo's back line, which has conceded in four of their last five matches, could be exposed if they commit too many bodies forward. Grosso will want his side to control the tempo at the Mapei, where they have won both of their home fixtures in the last five. The question is whether Lecce's midfield can disrupt that rhythm before Sassuolo establish it.
Lecce's attacking weakness is the most honest diagnosis available from the data. Three goals in five matches, with only two coming in the last three, points to a forward line that is not generating enough. Di Francesco will need more from his attackers than they have produced recently if Lecce are to take anything from this fixture. Sassuolo's own inconsistency — alternating between convincing wins and defeats in their recent run — suggests they are a side that can be got at, but only by opponents willing to press the issue. Lecce's recent output does not suggest they will do that with sufficient frequency.
The home advantage feels decisive here. Sassuolo have won both their home games in the last five, scoring four goals in those two fixtures, and Lecce's away record in the same window — one draw and one defeat — does not inspire confidence. The most likely outcome is a narrow Sassuolo win, with the hosts finding a goal in the first half and managing the game from there. A 2-0 scoreline, mirroring the result against Milan, is within reach if Lecce's attack continues to misfire.