Three consecutive Serie A meetings without a single point conceded to Lecce tells you something about the structural imbalance in this fixture. AC Milan host Lecce at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on Sunday evening as the Rossoneri look to convert an unbeaten start into something more decisive, while Di Francesco's side arrive carrying a defensive record that has already begun to corrode their early-season promise.
Milan sit sixth with eight points from four matches — two wins, two draws, no defeats — and a goal difference of plus three. Ruben Amorim's side have not lost yet, but the texture of their recent form carries a note of caution: the last three matches have produced one win and two draws, with five goals scored and three conceded. The opening-day momentum that came from wins against Torino and Venezia has softened into something more measured, and a home fixture against a side in disarray offers Amorim the clearest opportunity so far to sharpen his team's edge.
Lecce arrive twelfth, with six points from four Serie A matches — two wins, no draws, two losses — but the trajectory is the concern. In their last three matches across all competitions, Di Francesco's squad have collected just three points, conceding seven goals in the process. That is a declining arc by any measure: the broader five-match window already shows three defeats and nine goals against, and the most recent three matches have done nothing to arrest it. The 3-2 win against Monza last weekend steadied the ship briefly, but a side that shipped four goals at home against Roma earlier in the campaign has not yet demonstrated the defensive cohesion to survive a night at San Siro.
The head-to-head record sharpens the picture further. In the three most recent meetings between these clubs, Milan have won all three, conceding nothing across the series. That kind of persistent imbalance rarely survives forever, but it does reflect something real about the difference in ceiling between these two squads — and Lecce's current defensive fragility does not suggest this is the moment for a correction.
The tactical contest will hinge on whether Lecce can compress space quickly enough to blunt Milan's attacking transitions. Amorim's system tends to build pressure through wide areas and quick vertical movement; against a Lecce defensive line that has conceded seven Serie A goals in four matches, those channels look exploitable. Di Francesco's side will need to defend compactly and convert on the counter — their two Serie A wins this season came in exactly that mode, against Venezia and Monza — but sustaining that discipline for ninety minutes against Milan's quality at home is a different proposition.
Milan's own vulnerability is worth naming honestly. The two away draws — Juventus 1-1 AC Milan and Lazio 2-2 AC Milan — suggest that when opponents press high and disrupt Amorim's build-up, the Rossoneri can be unsettled. Lecce, however, have shown no consistent capacity to impose that kind of pressure on the road, and their away record this season offers Di Francesco little to work with.
The likeliest outcome is a Milan win built on defensive solidity and clinical use of the spaces Lecce's attacking intent will inevitably leave behind. The Rossoneri have the personnel and the home advantage; Lecce have the motivation of a side that knows another defeat would leave their early-season points tally looking precarious. Expect Milan to win, probably by a single goal, with the decisive moment coming from a set piece or a transition that Lecce's backline fails to close down in time.